Last week Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran. These meetings mark a significant step towards improving relations between the two countries which have been strained in recent years due to Iran’s displeasure with Azerbaijan’s positive relations with the United States and Israel, Azerbaijan’s distaste for former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and accusations from both sides that the other side was interfering with their internal affairs. The potential for US-Iranian détente and fear over Russia’s actions in the Caucasus have removed an impediment for dialogue and created an incentive to cooperate respectively. Such cooperation could have a significant impact on regional energy cooperation which will likely affect global energy markets.
One result of improved Azeri-Iranian relations could be the development of oil and natural gas pipelines that link the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf. Such a route was not feasible in recent years for a variety of reasons such as poor relations between Baku and Tehran, US Sanctions, and Russian pressure. Now we find ourselves in situation where Azerbaijan has an interest in improving relations with Iran while knowing that such an attempt is unlikely to damage Baku’s relationship with Washington. In fact Washington will likely support such a move as the US has an interest in undermining Russia’s energy policy. The EU and Turkey will also support an improvement in Azeri-Iranian relations as Brussels and Ankara have a long-term interest in diversifying their energy supplies. Such a move goes against Russian interests. It should be noted that during the visit President Aliyev was quoted as saying, "Many powers do not want a friendship between Iran and Azerbaijan, and are after disrupting this relationship. The officials of the two countries must make efforts to counter these steps." Presumably he was talking about Russia.
Russia’s regional military presence puts pressure on Azerbaijan which forces Baku to exercise caution with regards to any actions that could undermine Russia's energy interests. Currently, Russia has troops based in neighboring Armenia and in the Georgian break away republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. At the present there is no indication that Moscow has any plans to invade Azerbaijan. That said, Russia annexation of Crimea and the 2008 Russian-Georgian War serve as testaments that Moscow will act decisively to protect Russian interests. Suffice it to say Russia's regional military presence does not sit well with Baku. By improving relations with Iran and maintaining positive relations with Turkey and Georgia, Azerbaijan could gain support against Russia. An indicator that will likely precede significant energy cooperation is a security agreement between Tehran and Baku with the potential involvement of Ankara and Tbilisi. The reality is that significant cooperation in the region goes against Russian interests thus a credible deterrent will need to precede any developments in energy policy that go against Moscow’s interests. Azerbaijan by itself is too weak to counter any threats from Russia, however, if Baku is credibly backed by Tehran and Ankara, Moscow will have to be more careful in how it responds to any shifts in Azerbaijani energy policy that go against Russian interests.
Friday, April 18, 2014
Friday, April 4, 2014
The Potential Precedents That Could Be Set By The Philippines’ Lawsuit Against China Concerning Beijing’s Actions In The South China Sea
This week the Philippines filed a lawsuit with the United Nation’s Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. The suit alleges that China’s actions in the South China Sea violate Filipino territorial integrity as defined under the United Nation’s Convention on the Law of the Sea. Beijing claims most of the South China Sea via its 9 Dash Line (the demarcation line that China uses to justify its claim to most of the South China Sea) and has occupied territory such as Scarborough Shoal, Mischief Reef, and Second Thomas Shoal. In some cases China has gone far beyond setting up mere outposts. In 2012 Beijing established Sansha City on Yongxing Island. Sansha is a prefecture which is designed to administer the Spratly Islands, the Paracel Islands and the Macclesfield Bank. Essentially, China has been pursuing a policy of de facto annexation in the hope that in time Beijing will be able to force de jure recognition of Chinese claims to the territory. Suffice it to say, China’s neighbors are not happy with this approach which is why the Philippines filed the lawsuit in the first place. No matter who wins the suit the legal precedent will have a major impact on security concerns in the South and East China Seas.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea came into effect in 1994. The law’s mandate is as follow:
"The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea lays down a comprehensive regime of law and order in the world's oceans and seas establishing rules governing all uses of the oceans and their resources."
One of the key stipulations of the law is that it sets Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) as being 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers/230 miles) from a state’s maritime borders. Both China and the Philippines are signatories of the law (as is Japan, which we will discuss shortly). One of the areas occupied by China is Scarborough Shoal, which is only 220 km from the Philippines, but is 857 km from China. China claims that it has a right to the territory as Beijing claims that the Chinese have fished in the region as far back as 960 C.E. It is important to note that a finding in favor of China could set a legal precedent that implies that a country will have the right to exploit the resources of another country’s EEZ if it had used the territory at some point in the past. It is safe to say that such a finding could greatly complicate other territorial disputes.
If the court rules in favor of the Philippines it is unlikely that China will change its polices in the region in any significant manner. Beijing has no interest in reducing its presence in a region that sees half of the world’s shipping by tonnage pass through it each year. Essentially, great powers dominate the sea thus if China aspires for greatness Beijing must be able to dominate the South and East China Seas in the same manner that the United States has been able to dominate the waters of the Americas. China is also likely to face a degree of domestic instability in the coming years as it makes structural reforms, such as reigning in its shadow banking sector, which will likely be unpopular. It is also important to note that China's actions in the South China's Sea are very popular amongst a significant portion of the Chinese population. Stoking nationalist sentiment can help to maintain social stability during a time of unpopular reform.
If the lawsuit favors the Philippines the ruling could actually support China's strategic interests in the East China Seas. In September of 2012 Japan nationalized the Diaoyu/Senkuku Islands. This action angered Beijing who said that China would not, "sit back and watch its territorial sovereignty violated." Since then both sides have strengthen their security presence in the region. China also imposed an Air Defense Identification Zone over the region in November of 2013. A ruling against China’s actions in the South China Sea could set a legal precedent that could apply to Japan’s actions in the East China Sea. Whether or not this would reduce tension remains to be seen, as both countries will presumably act in their perceived interests. That said, a legal ruling could allow the countries to make some concessions while saving face. This is important as tensions are only going to get worse. For example, it is likely that Japan will reform its pacifist constitution (which could trigger a preemptive Chinese response in the East China Sea). Such an action would further complicate a difficult situation. Given that the United States will back Japan, and is making security arrangements with other regional players such as the Philippines, we find ourselves in a context where tensions could escalate quickly and result in a large, long-term conflict. Anything that could ameliorate this situation, such as the potentially face saving option that a legal ruling could provide, should be monitored closely. After all, instability in shipping zones as important as the South and East China Seas impacts most of the global supply chain and thus the vast majority of the world’s population.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea came into effect in 1994. The law’s mandate is as follow:
"The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea lays down a comprehensive regime of law and order in the world's oceans and seas establishing rules governing all uses of the oceans and their resources."
One of the key stipulations of the law is that it sets Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) as being 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers/230 miles) from a state’s maritime borders. Both China and the Philippines are signatories of the law (as is Japan, which we will discuss shortly). One of the areas occupied by China is Scarborough Shoal, which is only 220 km from the Philippines, but is 857 km from China. China claims that it has a right to the territory as Beijing claims that the Chinese have fished in the region as far back as 960 C.E. It is important to note that a finding in favor of China could set a legal precedent that implies that a country will have the right to exploit the resources of another country’s EEZ if it had used the territory at some point in the past. It is safe to say that such a finding could greatly complicate other territorial disputes.
If the court rules in favor of the Philippines it is unlikely that China will change its polices in the region in any significant manner. Beijing has no interest in reducing its presence in a region that sees half of the world’s shipping by tonnage pass through it each year. Essentially, great powers dominate the sea thus if China aspires for greatness Beijing must be able to dominate the South and East China Seas in the same manner that the United States has been able to dominate the waters of the Americas. China is also likely to face a degree of domestic instability in the coming years as it makes structural reforms, such as reigning in its shadow banking sector, which will likely be unpopular. It is also important to note that China's actions in the South China's Sea are very popular amongst a significant portion of the Chinese population. Stoking nationalist sentiment can help to maintain social stability during a time of unpopular reform.
If the lawsuit favors the Philippines the ruling could actually support China's strategic interests in the East China Seas. In September of 2012 Japan nationalized the Diaoyu/Senkuku Islands. This action angered Beijing who said that China would not, "sit back and watch its territorial sovereignty violated." Since then both sides have strengthen their security presence in the region. China also imposed an Air Defense Identification Zone over the region in November of 2013. A ruling against China’s actions in the South China Sea could set a legal precedent that could apply to Japan’s actions in the East China Sea. Whether or not this would reduce tension remains to be seen, as both countries will presumably act in their perceived interests. That said, a legal ruling could allow the countries to make some concessions while saving face. This is important as tensions are only going to get worse. For example, it is likely that Japan will reform its pacifist constitution (which could trigger a preemptive Chinese response in the East China Sea). Such an action would further complicate a difficult situation. Given that the United States will back Japan, and is making security arrangements with other regional players such as the Philippines, we find ourselves in a context where tensions could escalate quickly and result in a large, long-term conflict. Anything that could ameliorate this situation, such as the potentially face saving option that a legal ruling could provide, should be monitored closely. After all, instability in shipping zones as important as the South and East China Seas impacts most of the global supply chain and thus the vast majority of the world’s population.
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