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Friday, March 28, 2014

The Implications of Myanmar’s Census

From March 30th until April 10th Myanmar will conduct its first census since 1983. On the surface this would appear to be a reasonable action as a great deal has changed in the last thirty plus years, not the least of which has been the country's emergence from isolation. The problem is that the census is likely to enflame ethnic tensions. The instability that the census could provoke will be one of the most significant challenges that Myanmar has encountered since it has begun re-engaging with the international community. Therefore, it is important to monitor how Naypyidaw handles this potential unrest. A good performance would send a very positive signal to investors. A poor handling of the situation could see investors hold back and would likely see the Chinese attempt to regain some of the leverage that Beijing has lost as the West has begun to reengage with Myanmar.

Ethnic insurgency has long been a key concern in Myanmar. After the assassination of independence hero Aung San many ethnic groups, such as the Karen, launched armed insurgencies. These struggles have been going on for decades and the census could potentially undo some of the progress that Naypyidaw has made in pursuing peace talks with the rebels. A key problem with the census is that significant ethnic minority groups such as the Karen, Shan and Chin were not consulted in the development of the census questions, thus, the census has a variety of subgroups for minorities, such as the Chin, which the groups in question do not recognize. The suspicion is that the format of the census will make these groups appear divided and thus undermine their interests. Though, census takers, especially those of mixed ethnicity, have the option of clarifying their background there are concerns that this will result in them being grouped under a catchall "foreigners" tag. In addition to this the Muslim minority Rohingyas of Rakhine State will not be included. Essentially, the census looks like it only supports the interests of the majority Burmens.

If the census results in heightened political instability it is likely that Beijing will try to exploit the situation to its advantage. China’s interests in Myanmar are both strategic and economic. The country provides Beijing with energy resources and access to the Indian Ocean, the latter of which is essential for the development of parts of China’s interior such as Yunnan Province. For this reason Beijing will invest in Myanmar even if the country is experiencing a degree of political instability. In fact China was Myanmar’s only significant investor from the 1980s until the country began reforms in 2011. Beijing feels that Washington is pursuing a containment strategy against China and will likely seize the opportunity to cement its interests in the country if the United States and other western powers temporarily back off due to political instability. For these reasons we should monitor both how Naypyidaw addresses the ethnic tensions which the census is likely to provoke as well as China’s (and to a lesser degree India’s) actions if political instability causes western powers to back off. The reality is that Myanmar is poor due to decades of poor governance not a lack of resources. The country could develop relatively quickly if given the chance. How it will develop will be influenced by foreign investors so knowing who is investing and what their interests are is essential for forecasting how Myanmar will develop.

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