Will Shifts In East Asian Demographics Impact Reactions To North Korean Aggression?

Relations between Seoul and Pyongyang are especially tense this month due to the annual "Foal Eagle" joint military drill conducted by the US and South Korea that will be held at the end of February. North Korea views these exercises as a provocation and has already threatened to cancel the proposed family reunions scheduled for February 20^th to the 25^th stating that "Dialogue and exercises of war" are incompatible. This comes at a time when Kim Jong Un is trying to consolidate his power with the recent execution of his uncle Chang Song-thaek providing an example of the brutality of this process.

When we look at the current tensions on the Korean Peninsula it is important to remember that North Korea has a history of taking action when the US military is in the region. For example the attacks on Yeonpyeong Island on November 23^rd, 2010 coincided with the Hoguk Exercises which were a joint Korean-US undertaking on the western shore of the Korean Peninsula. Last year’s drills were especially tense provoking North Korea to threaten pre-emptive nuclear strikes. Given the statements coming out of Pyongyang this year it is likely that tensions will be as bad if not worse. For these reasons some form of aggression from North Korea would not be unexpected. What is different this year is that the geopolitical climate of East Asia has shifted. This shift is attributed to numerous factors one of the most important of which is changing demographics.

Much of East Asia is facing a demographic crisis in which the population is aging rapidly while birth rates have fallen. Since 1978 China has had a one-child policy (which is now being reformed) and in the past few decades certain parts of Japan and South Korea have in many ways had a de facto one child policy due to a variety of reasons such as the high cost of raising children. 1984 was the last year that South Korea’s total fertility rate was 2.0. This metric has fluctuated between 1.1 and 1.2 for over a decade. Japan’s total fertility rate has not been 2.0 since 1974 and has ranged from 1.3 and 1.4 since 2002. From an economic standpoint this demographic shift is a challenge as the youth must provide more support to the elderly than in previous decades and the percentage of the population that can be classified as elderly is becoming much larger. This change is also forcing countries to stake territorial claims and make security arrangements now when they are in a position of relative strength.

From a security standpoint declining populations will mean a significant decrease in the number of people who are fit for military duty (immigration could mitigate this issue but at the present none of the countries in question are particularly keen on welcoming large numbers of foreigners). This dynamic combined with the reality that the US will not guarantee security in the manner that it has in the past are forcing China, South Korea, and Japan to shift their policies in a more aggressive manner. This change takes numerous forms such as the establishment of China’s Air Defense Identification Zone over a significant portion of the East China Sea and Japan’s efforts to build up its military. Such a situation increases the chance for conflict. In the past North Korea has been able to get away with a high degree of brinkmanship. Given the current geopolitical shift and evidence that Beijing is beginning to lose patience with Pyongyang it is not impossible that acts of aggression that in the past would only provoke condemnation might now produce more concrete action. For these reason we must be particularly concerned with East Asia this February. History provides us with countless examples of incidents that usually would have stayed minor but have become amplified due to social, political and economic changes such as a major shift in the demographics of a country. Though it can be a challenge to predict the exact form that a potential conflict will take we do know that major structural shift will usually increase tensions. Understanding the nature of these shifts better equips us to address these challenges.

The Influence of East Asian Demographic Shifts and North Korean Power Struggles on the Establishment of China’s ADIZ

The apparent removal of Kim Jong Un’s Uncle Chang Song-taek from his position of vice-chairman of the National Defense Commission indicates that Pyongyang is facing an internal crisis. This dismissal supports recent analyses that the regime of Kim Jong Un is in trouble. If there is regime change in North Korea, China’s geographic proximity and strong relations with both North and South Korea will make Beijing a key player in promoting stability on the Korean Peninsula and facilitating a potential process of reunification. The ability to perform a role which might remove one of the biggest regional threats could give Beijing greater leverage when dealing with other regional players. Beijing's establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) should be seen in this context. As we shall see future demographic challenges and the need to appeal to nationalistic sentiment also appear to be playing roles in the establishment of the ADIZ.

Despite the tensions that China’s Air Defense Identification Zone has caused it must be noted that an ADIZ is a less risky way to stake a claim to a territory when compared to other courses of action. Certainly, if China were to set up settlements on the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands the consequences could be far graver. It is also important to note that although many military aircraft have ignored the ADIZ most governments have requested that their civilian aircraft respect the Air Defense Identification Zone. This could be viewed as tacit acceptance of China's claim to the territory. If Beijing is able to gain enough recognition of the ADIZ it will cater to nationalist sentiment.  This is important as China will have to make some tough economic reforms in the future thus any action that can boost support for the new government is important. Success in establishing an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea would also set the stage for an ADIZ in the South China Sea which would increase China's claims to the Spratly and Parcel Islands.

Shifting demographics could also be playing a role in Beijing’s establishment of the ADIZ. Japan, China and South Korea all have declining populations and rising dependency ratios (the ratio of dependents - people younger than 15 or older than 64 - to the working-age population). In the coming decades all these countries are likely to suffer some economic difficulties in supporting their aging populations. The difference is that South Korea and Japan are rich (though Japan does have notable debt problems), have more developed infrastructure, and are backed by the US. As things stand now Japan and South Korea are better equipped to deal with this potential period of instability.  China must know that this time of relative weakness could allow other parties, such as the United States, to increase their presence in the Western Pacific. Clearly, this goes against Beijing's interests. The fact that Japan will likely have a stronger military in the future is an additional concern. For these reasons Beijing likely feels that trying to force territorial resolutions while China is in a period of relative strength is a strategic imperative. The establishment of the Air Defense Identification Zone could be the first step in such a process.