On Thursday Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and New Komeito Party head Natsuo Yamaguchi confirmed that there will be no reinterpretation of the Japanese constitution to permit Collective Defense though the potential for such a shift is still possible. Such a move would be a preliminary step to the normalization of the Japanese military. Despite this delay it is probable that Japan will remilitarize at some point in the future given that Tokyo can not assume that the United States will always protect Japanese interests. Though there is a great deal of overlap between Washington and Tokyo's interests the reality is that the United States wants its allies to shoulder a greater burden in terms of providing security in their respective regions. Washington has also cut military spending due to the sequester. For these reasons Abe is hoping for the reinterpretation of the constitution by the end of the year to coincide with possible revisions to the guidelines governing US-Japanese defense cooperation. Such a shift will have geopolitical consequences in the Western Pacific
As things stand now Japan is working with the Philippines in order to protect Tokyo and Manila's mutual interests in the Western Pacific. Japan is helping the Philippines finance patrol boats as well as providing financial assistance to improve communication technology for the Filipino Coast Guard. Filipino President Aquino will be visiting Japan on the 24th of June. China’s activities in the South China Seas and how they should be addressed will likely be discussed during this trip. This is where collective defense comes in to play as neither country's military is a match for the Chinese however a united front with the participation of countries with similar grievances, such as Vietnam, and possibly with tacit or even explicit US support would be a strong deterrent. Though such a grouping could in theory cause China to behave in a less aggressive manner it is also likely that a united front could be viewed as a credible enough threat by Beijing that China will feel compelled to take preemptive action to protect its perceived interests. There are several reasons to act sooner rather than later including the reality that China faces significant demographic threats such as an aging population and an increasing dependency ratio. Beijing also needs to make significant economic reforms which will not be popular with the population. For these reasons anything that can boost nationalism in China is in Beijing's interest as it will serve as a distraction. The dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands is an issue which stokes a great deal of nationalist sentiment in China.
If Japan commits to remilitarization and makes overtures to Manila, Hanoi and other countries who are concerned with Beijing’s territorial ambitions it is possible that China will occupy the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands which both Japan and China claim. China's intent will not be to start a war (though there a credible arguments that Beijing will tolerate a short conflict). Beijing will be betting that despite the uproar that such a maneuver will cause the international community will feel that they have too much to lose economically if they push for strong sanctions against China. Certainly, Beijing is looking at the global response to Russia's annexation of Crimea with great interest. If China annexes the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands but manages to convince the international community that it will not interfere with shipping lanes in the region it is possible that many countries outside of the region will fell that any conflict is not worth the economic costs. The problem is that Japan and other regional powers, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, would likely view inaction as appeasement. The thinking in many East and Southeast Asian capitals might be, “If we allow this what next?”. Such a scenario sets the stage for a dramatic escalation in tensions which could impact some of the most important shipping lanes in the world. For this reason we must pay close attention to any signs that Japan will remilitarize as well as any developments that result in closer relations between Japan and countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam even if there is no overt call for Collective Defense. Given that Abe is pushing for a constitutional reinterpretation by the years end we might see significant developments in the South and East China Seas in the coming months.
Showing posts with label Japan Military Normalization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Japan Military Normalization. Show all posts
Friday, June 20, 2014
Friday, June 6, 2014
The Impact of the European Reassurance Initiative on the Asia-Pacific Region
This week US President Barack Obama unveiled a one billion dollar European Reassurance Fund to help assuage fears amongst the United States' Central and Eastern European allies that Washington is a fair weather friend. Certainly, the Obama Administration’s shift to a foreign policy in which the US is looking to lead from behind rather than take charge has been a cause for concern from Warsaw to Bucharest. The fund will lead to an increase in exercises and a greater rotational presence of American troops in Europe which will serve as a more credible deterrent to Russia if Moscow were to consider military incursions into the Baltic States or Eastern and Central Europe. In the coming days much will be written about the potential effects of this fund on relations between the US, EU and Russia. What is also important to note is that this fund has a symbolic function as it serves as a reminder to the United States' allies in other parts of the world that Washington will support its allies with more than just words. One region where the symbolism of this initiative will be scrutinized closely is in the Asia Pacific Region.
The past few years have seen heightening tensions in the South and East China Seas. Some likely results of these conflicts will be the normalization of Japan's military and new security arrangements such as April’s US-Filipino Deal which gives the US access to military bases in the Philippines for the next ten years. Suffice it to say China does not appreciate such developments. Japan’s rearmament will presumably happen at some point however it is important to note that a gradual, transparent shift will presumably be perceived as less of a threat to Beijing and thus make it less likely that China will feel that it is being forced into a position in which it must take action. By making a public statement that the US will back its European Allies the president is also implying that the United States will not shirk its responsibilities to its Asian allies and in theory could give Tokyo some room to take a less aggressive stance in terms of rearmament. After all, the Obama Administration has made it very clear that the European Reassurance Fund will not detract from American activities in the Asia Pacific Region. In fact the "Pivot" to Asia has been a central feature of the President's foreign policy and this shift will likely be carried on by his successor no matter what political party they represent.
Reassuring US allies in the Asia Pacific region could also serve a useful purpose in the negotiations of the Trans Pacific Partnership. Washington explicit offer to reassure its Eastern European allies could be perceived as tacit admission that the US will back its partners in the Asia Pacific given that the region is far more economically significant to the United States than Central and Eastern Europe. Implied reassurance that the US will do what is necessary to keep strategic shipping lanes in the East and South China Seas open will not harm negotiations. This is of particular importance as some of the rumored proposals of the agreement, such as provisions targeting currency manipulation and restrictions on the origin countries for inputs for textile production, appear to be designed to exclude China. Though the actual terms of the Trans Pacific Partnership will not be known until the final proposal is ready for ratification it is safe to say that China will not want to see its interests threatened and that Beijing will take what it perceives as appropriate action to counter such threats. Recent conflicts between China and Vietnam and China and the Philippines demonstrate that Beijing is not adverse to using its military to protect its territorial claims while history has shown us that small skirmishes can escalate quickly. The European Reassurance Fund serves as a sign that the Untied States will back its allies.
Though the fund is an important development funding resistance and actively taking part in military operations should the need arise are entirely different things. In an actual war a billion dollars is not that much money and, thought the US is planning on rotating more troops through Europe, the permanent US military presence that Poland has requested is currently being denied. Numerous capitals in the Asia-Pacific region are no doubt aware of this reality. That said, the fund will likely be welcomed by US allies in the Asia Pacific region as a positive sign that the United States is a dependable ally. At the end of the day this is a fairly affordable way for President Obama to demonstrate to US allies that, despite a change in US foreign policy, the United States is a friend that can be trusted.
The past few years have seen heightening tensions in the South and East China Seas. Some likely results of these conflicts will be the normalization of Japan's military and new security arrangements such as April’s US-Filipino Deal which gives the US access to military bases in the Philippines for the next ten years. Suffice it to say China does not appreciate such developments. Japan’s rearmament will presumably happen at some point however it is important to note that a gradual, transparent shift will presumably be perceived as less of a threat to Beijing and thus make it less likely that China will feel that it is being forced into a position in which it must take action. By making a public statement that the US will back its European Allies the president is also implying that the United States will not shirk its responsibilities to its Asian allies and in theory could give Tokyo some room to take a less aggressive stance in terms of rearmament. After all, the Obama Administration has made it very clear that the European Reassurance Fund will not detract from American activities in the Asia Pacific Region. In fact the "Pivot" to Asia has been a central feature of the President's foreign policy and this shift will likely be carried on by his successor no matter what political party they represent.
Reassuring US allies in the Asia Pacific region could also serve a useful purpose in the negotiations of the Trans Pacific Partnership. Washington explicit offer to reassure its Eastern European allies could be perceived as tacit admission that the US will back its partners in the Asia Pacific given that the region is far more economically significant to the United States than Central and Eastern Europe. Implied reassurance that the US will do what is necessary to keep strategic shipping lanes in the East and South China Seas open will not harm negotiations. This is of particular importance as some of the rumored proposals of the agreement, such as provisions targeting currency manipulation and restrictions on the origin countries for inputs for textile production, appear to be designed to exclude China. Though the actual terms of the Trans Pacific Partnership will not be known until the final proposal is ready for ratification it is safe to say that China will not want to see its interests threatened and that Beijing will take what it perceives as appropriate action to counter such threats. Recent conflicts between China and Vietnam and China and the Philippines demonstrate that Beijing is not adverse to using its military to protect its territorial claims while history has shown us that small skirmishes can escalate quickly. The European Reassurance Fund serves as a sign that the Untied States will back its allies.
Though the fund is an important development funding resistance and actively taking part in military operations should the need arise are entirely different things. In an actual war a billion dollars is not that much money and, thought the US is planning on rotating more troops through Europe, the permanent US military presence that Poland has requested is currently being denied. Numerous capitals in the Asia-Pacific region are no doubt aware of this reality. That said, the fund will likely be welcomed by US allies in the Asia Pacific region as a positive sign that the United States is a dependable ally. At the end of the day this is a fairly affordable way for President Obama to demonstrate to US allies that, despite a change in US foreign policy, the United States is a friend that can be trusted.
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