The Influence of East Asian Demographic Shifts and North Korean Power Struggles on the Establishment of China’s ADIZ

The apparent removal of Kim Jong Un’s Uncle Chang Song-taek from his position of vice-chairman of the National Defense Commission indicates that Pyongyang is facing an internal crisis. This dismissal supports recent analyses that the regime of Kim Jong Un is in trouble. If there is regime change in North Korea, China’s geographic proximity and strong relations with both North and South Korea will make Beijing a key player in promoting stability on the Korean Peninsula and facilitating a potential process of reunification. The ability to perform a role which might remove one of the biggest regional threats could give Beijing greater leverage when dealing with other regional players. Beijing's establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) should be seen in this context. As we shall see future demographic challenges and the need to appeal to nationalistic sentiment also appear to be playing roles in the establishment of the ADIZ.

Despite the tensions that China’s Air Defense Identification Zone has caused it must be noted that an ADIZ is a less risky way to stake a claim to a territory when compared to other courses of action. Certainly, if China were to set up settlements on the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands the consequences could be far graver. It is also important to note that although many military aircraft have ignored the ADIZ most governments have requested that their civilian aircraft respect the Air Defense Identification Zone. This could be viewed as tacit acceptance of China's claim to the territory. If Beijing is able to gain enough recognition of the ADIZ it will cater to nationalist sentiment.  This is important as China will have to make some tough economic reforms in the future thus any action that can boost support for the new government is important. Success in establishing an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea would also set the stage for an ADIZ in the South China Sea which would increase China's claims to the Spratly and Parcel Islands.

Shifting demographics could also be playing a role in Beijing’s establishment of the ADIZ. Japan, China and South Korea all have declining populations and rising dependency ratios (the ratio of dependents - people younger than 15 or older than 64 - to the working-age population). In the coming decades all these countries are likely to suffer some economic difficulties in supporting their aging populations. The difference is that South Korea and Japan are rich (though Japan does have notable debt problems), have more developed infrastructure, and are backed by the US. As things stand now Japan and South Korea are better equipped to deal with this potential period of instability.  China must know that this time of relative weakness could allow other parties, such as the United States, to increase their presence in the Western Pacific. Clearly, this goes against Beijing's interests. The fact that Japan will likely have a stronger military in the future is an additional concern. For these reasons Beijing likely feels that trying to force territorial resolutions while China is in a period of relative strength is a strategic imperative. The establishment of the Air Defense Identification Zone could be the first step in such a process.