Generally speaking I focus on tangible resources in these posts. These physical goods range from oil to infrastructure. That said, we must note that some resources are valuable yet intangible. A lack of a concrete form does not mean that they do not merit discussion. These abstract resources can take many forms such as obtaining a quality education, the ability to utilize a specific service, and an institutional structure that provides the vast majority of a population with the opportunity to provide for themselves and their family. A codified sets of rights also falls under the rubric of intangible resources as they guarantee the population specified rights and privileges. By limiting a woman’s right to an abortion Madrid may very well have added more fuel to the protest movements in Spain. As we have seen with the Arab Spring such a shift has the ability to spread far beyond the borders of one state impacting the political, social, economic, and security stability of an entire region.
Between alleged corruption in the royal family, an unpopular government, and a crippling economic crisis Spain's situation is terrible to say the least. This does not mean that things cannot get worse. When peoples’ rights are stripped from them they will often protest. It is likely that the demonstrations that have already occurred in response to the new abortion law will only become larger given that opinion polls are estimating that up to 80% of Spaniards, including practicing Catholics, feel that the proposed law was not necessary. (It is important to note that "opposing" and "not necessary" are not the same thing. That said, it is also safe to say that there is significant opposition to the law.). As we have seen with other protest movements, such as the Occupy Movement, protests attract protestors even if their personal cause is not the purpose of the protest. On one hand this hinders the development of effective leadership, as the demonstrations are not cohesive. On the other hand the increased turnout can lead to increased social instability.
Protest movements can start and spread due to unexpected incidents. Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation quite literally sparked the Arab Spring. The causes of demonstrations can also be relatively unnecessary. The protests in Ukraine, which started when Kiev froze negotiations to further integrate with the EU, had diminished until President Yankuvych passed an anti-protest law that compromised Ukrainians' freedom to protest. Given many Ukrainians' response to the attempted removal of a right it is neither unreasonable to think that Spain’s new abortion law will provoke massive demonstrations nor is it unrealistic to think that Spaniards who have other grievances will use these protests to make their voices heard. If such incidents were to occur it is also possible that they could further provoke protest movements in other countries. These demonstration could help increase the power of political parties that want to limit European integration. Nationalist Parties such as Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France, Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party in the Netherlands, and Greece’s Golden Dawn are examples of political movements whose ideologies have historically been relatively fringe yet have become far more popular as the economic crisis has carried on in Europe. The increased protests that Spain’s recent actions might provoke could serve as an ideal fora for these groups to attract more support.
Europe will not see the sort of instability that we have seen in North Africa and Southwest Asia as Europe is democratic (and thus unpopular leaders can be voted out) and significantly richer. That said, an increase of protests is the last thing that Europe need during a crucial year in which May’s European Parliamentary Elections could see nationalist parties make political gains which would further limit Brussels ability to act decisively. The forthcoming stress tests for many European banks will also add a greater degree of economic instability to existing political, social and security concerns. Is Europe doomed in the long term? No. Even if the EU as we know it sees a fundamental institutional shift we are still looking at a region with a massive amount of financial and human capital as well as an important geographic location and the infrastructure to maximize its utility. Though a rising dependency ratio will cause problems in the coming decades and some countries of the European Periphery will remain poor the European Core will remain significant. That said, the potential for instability that Madrid has just unleashed is the last thing that Europe needs in 2014.
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