This week Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina completed a three day visit to China. One of her primary objectives during the trip was to attract investment to develop a deep-sea port on Sonadia Island in the Bay of Bengal. Though an agreement is still pending such a development would serve as an additional stop along the so-called String of Pearls, a network of ports that the Chinese have helped develop which link East Africa, Southwest Asia, and South Asia to China. A further increase in China's presence in the Indian Ocean and the concomitant increase in trade that would presumably accompany it will be a positive step for Bangladesh even if it could complicate relations between Delhi and Dhaka. What garners less attention is the reality that an increase in China’s presence in the Indian Ocean could also exacerbate tensions in the South China Sea.
If there is a an increase in trade between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea the route will become more valuable. Though the energy resources in the South China Sea are attractive Beijing's primary interest in the region is to have greater control over shipping lanes through which half of the world’s cargo by tonnage passes through each year. China wants to be a great power and great powers are Blue Water Powers (i.e. they have a global naval presence). The problem with a global naval presence is that sovereign powers resent foreign powers imposing themselves near their territory. We have already seen heightened tensions in the South China Sea between China and Vietnam and China and the Philippines with the former allegedly ramming Chinese ships and the latter having filed a case against China in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague accusing Beijing of violating the United Nations’ Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). As long as China's neighbors are divided they cannot stand up to China in an effective manner. For this reason it will be important to note if the Philippines and Vietnam decide to cooperate to protect their interests in the South China Sea.
Though Manila and Hanoi have conflicting claims over the Spratly Islands there is evidence that the Vietnamese and Filipinos recognize that they can better protect their respective interests by cooperating. Last Sunday members of the Filipino and Vietnamese navies staged a symbolic display by gathering to play soccer and volleyball and drink beer on the Vietnamese held Southwest Cay in the South China Sea. Though such a gathering is hardly a concrete commitment to mutual defense it does send a message that cooperation is possible. It will be important to monitor if Filipino-Vietnamese relations develop beyond the symbolic and whether or not an agreement between the two countries will gain either direct or indirect support from Japan and the United States.
The so-called String of Pearls is a potential step to transform China into a Blue Water Power. This process will take decades and will be prone to conflicts. Whether or not these conflicts escalate to the point where diplomacy fails remains to be seen. What is important to note is that
what happens in the Indian Ocean can impact relations in the South and East China Seas. As countries in one region see China enhancing it power in another region they will question how this will impact their long-term interests. It is possible that we will see greater cooperation between the Philippines, Vietnam and a remilitarized Japan with either the explicit or implicit backing of the United States. Such a grouping might be able to provide a balance of power in the Western Pacific but it could also be viewed as a sufficient threat for Beijing to take action to protect Chinese interests. For this reason it is important to monitor factors which could unite countries in the South and East China Seas even if these factors are occurring in another region and their implications are not always immediately evident.
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