In January of this year the Philippines requested arbitration against China under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The request was due to China’s increasingly aggressive territorial ambitions in the South China Sea. In the long term this suit has the potential to increase conflict in the Asia Pacific region. Though the case is likely to take years to be settled and could be difficult to enforce its progress should be monitored as its influence could impact regional stability and the global economy.
China claims 80% of the South China Sea as Chinese territory through a demarcation line called the Nine-Dash Line. The intent of the case is to prove that the Nine-Dash Line claim is invalid under UNCLOS. The Filipinos seek to clarify their territorial claims and to confirm that shoals, such as Scarborough, legally fall within the Philippines 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone. Suffice it to say this legal challenge has angered Beijing and the Chinese are arguing that the case is not valid. Though China ratified UNCLOS in 1996 it filed a statement in 2006 which essentiality stated that China will follow the parts of UNCLOS which suit its interests while ignoring the parts that do not. (Interestingly enough the parts of UNCLOS that work against China in its dispute with the Philippines work to Beijing’s advantage in its conflict with Tokyo over Japan’s occupation of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea).
China has been increasingly aggressive in staking its claim to the South China Sea. Earlier this year Sinomaps Press (China’s mapping authority) published a map officially claiming the area within the Nine-Dash Line as Chinese territory rather than territory that Beijing felt it had a historic claim to. Not surprisingly the map has been met with alarm by China’s neighbors. Controlling the South China Sea is an imperative in terms of access to energy as there are potentially significant reserves of oil and natural gas in the region. These resources are essential to meeting the rapidly rising energy needs of the regional countries. Even if the energy sources are overstated control of the territory conveys a strategic advantage as about half of the world’s shipping tonnage is shipped through the South China Sea. Suffice it to say no country in the region wants to relinquish its claim to the territory.
Beijing has taken action that has gone beyond redrawing maps. Currently, China is occupying Scarborough Shoal. The concern is that this action could lead to its permanent annexation. There is a precedent here. In 1994 China occupied Mischief Reef which is about 130 miles from the Filipino Province of Palawan. Over the next nineteen years the reef has evolved into a military base. In September it was reported that 75 concrete blocks were spotted near the entrance to Scarborough Shoal. There is speculation that this could be the start of military fortification. Not surprisingly, Manila does not want the Chinese to be so close to Filipino territory. The lawsuit is a peaceful way for the Philippines to challenge China’s actions.
The Philippines have made a stand. If they are successful in their suit other powers will monitor China’s response. If China disregards the case's findings some form of action will need to be taken. The nature of the action can of course vary, however, we must note that it would set a negative precedent if the countries of the Asia Pacific region remained passive while Beijing continues annexing and fortifying various reefs and shoals when international law says the territory in question does not belong to China. If China continues with this policy after UNCLOS has ruled against it this action could force regional countries to band together. This would increase regional tensions as well as the potential for an event that could trigger a conflict. Such a situation would have severe security and economic consequences. Certainly, the impact on shipping lands would have a significant impact on the trade thus impacting commodity prices and access to energy sources. We can hope that a peaceful resolution can be found, however, if Beijing continues with its current policy of symbolically and literally annexing territory while delaying discussions to resolve this issue the hope of a peaceful resolution is lessened.
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