Summary:
A recent RAND Corporation report provides evidence that the regime of Kim Jong Un could collapse within the coming years. Such an occurrence could set the stage for the reunification of the Korean Peninsula. Though we must note that regime change does not necessarily mean reunification (in fact it could set the stage for a conflict between China and the US/South Korea), it is still important to forecast how the reunification of the Korean Peninsula might impact the Asia Pacific region and the global economy.
When we look at international relations amongst the countries of the Asia Pacific region we must recognize that these states seek to use the United States and China to counterbalance one another. By playing Beijing and Washington off each other the countries of the Asia Pacific region seek to ensure access to shipping lanes and natural resources while managing their security needs. For these reasons the terms and conditions of the security and trade agreements that these countries reach with the United States, China and amongst themselves serve as a barometer as to how the various actors view the present and future stability of the region. If the Koreas reunited it would likely result in a major change in regional military alliances which would have a significant impact on regional security agreements and the global economy. Such an occurrence could also force regional countries to choose between the United States and China in terms of which country best serves their interests. This could cause further instability.
The US Military in the Asia Pacific Region:
The United States has maintained a military presence in South Korea since the signing of the 1953 The Korean War Armistice Agreement. Currently, there are approximately 28,500 American military personnel based in South Korea. The potential of resumed hostilities between the Koreas has been the justification for an American military presence. If the potential for conflict was removed, via reunification or some other means, it would be more challenging to justify the deployment of so many US soldiers on the Korean Peninsula.
Currently, we are seeing the redeployment and proposed redeployment of US military personnel within the Asia Pacific region. Reasons for this shift include budget cuts and domestic pressure on the governments of military allies from citizens who resent a large concentration of US military personnel within certain areas of their territory. We are also witnessing the greater use of military rotation. Allowing the US military to be temporarily based in a country is a good way for countries to bolster their security and their relationship with the United States. Though China is not keen on a continued US military presence in the region Beijing likely sees temporary access to bases as superior to permanent bases thus relations between these countries and China function as well as can be expected. For the time being this balancing act appears to be working. However, is this course of action sustainable? A reduction of permanent bases could reduce the ability of the United States to protect its regional interests if some of Washington’s current allies decided at some point in the future to prevent the US military from rotating through their territory. Clearly, this is not in the interest of the United States.
If the US were to reduce the number of troops in the Korean Peninsula it is likely that we would see American forces spread amongst the Philippines, Japan, Australia and Singapore. It is important to note that a desire by the US to station troops in any of these countries is not guaranteed to become a reality. Allowing the US military to pass through one’s territory is one thing. Allowing the United States to set up bases there is a different matter entirely. As we shall see there is a great deal of opposition to a US military presence in the Philippines (the US had to withdraw in 1992 due to public pressure), and the presence of US forces in Okinawa has generated a great deal of resentment in Japan. In the coming posts we will look at how several key regional powers view their economic, security and energy needs and how this perception could influence their relations with the US and China.
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